Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
